TAF vs SLAF - A Realistic Analysis

Once again, LTTE jubilate their foreign living funders (so called Diasporas) with an array of air raids done to Mannar and Colombo. In this attempt, they first did a destructive (? not sure) attack to Mannar military base to get the military eye focused on to Mannar, and then they sneak their way to the main target at Colombo. That sounds like a good plan.

According to the media information, two bombs have fallen to Thalladi, Mannar where our Army base is located and then those two LTTE aircrafts were headed toward President House while bombing Kelanathissa power plant on their way. This drama triggered the Colombo air defense system, which minimized the possible damages. However both of these LTTE aircrafts were managed to sail their way back safelyto marked their 11th victorious air raid on our sky (Yes, it is a shame). This incident raised lots of questions and was an eye opener for public to question the accountability of our Air Marshal WDRMJ Goonetileke’s exclusive interview given below...

Q: You are confident that the LTTE air capability is no longer a threat to the SLAF?
A: Yes we can say that we can deal with them effectively. Last time they came and dropped bombs in Weli Oya. That was the safest location they could reach and drop bombs and return.

What is this Z-143 and who is TAF and SLAF

The Z-143 is a light aircraft, famous for pilot training. Its great flight characteristics and additional instruments make the ZLIN easy to fly at night or (in) low visibility conditions. It is reported that Tamil Tiger Air Force (TAF) is having 3 or 4 modified versions of this aircrafts (They have purchased them during the peace time with the help of either Norwegian “piece” makers or some NGOs). Today TAF has become the first terrorist outfit in the world to have an air force associate with them. In the field of general aviation, this aircraft is incompetent even competing with a much simpler and lighter aircrafts such as Cessna or Piper. However the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), a much stronger rival, is struggling in big time to protect their air space against this enemy today.

The ZLIN is an amazingly low grade flying machine (with Max. Speed ~ 267 km/h and Endurance ~ 5 hours and 10 minutes and Range with max fuel ~1000km). The TAF is using it to their maximum advantage while SLAF is struggling to fight it with much more superior modern state of art technologies, weapons and aircrafts. They have aircraft such as F-7Gs (with Max. Speed ~ 2,175 km/h), Mi-24 (with Max. Speed ~ 335 km/h), Kefir and MIG 21-27. It is said that Mi 24 has recently been upgraded with modern Israeli FLIR and electronic warfare systems and radar, with fully functional helmet mounted target tracking systems, and AAMs as well. So with all these it is very interesting to analyze and see “why we cannot” and “how we can improve” on counter attacking these so called low flying tin-cans.

What limitations SLAF is having today

Systematic – It is said that SALF needed to follow a lengthy/ time consuming approval process followed by a series of checkup before taking off an aircraft. This may not only delay the mission start but also earns time for TAF to go back and disappear themselves into the north jungles. The approval processes may have its reasons and I don’t have any questions having it for all general missions too. But the mission related to TAF is an exceptional one. Therefore that need some special adjustments and creative planning to improve our effectiveness against this enemy.

Leadership – It is said that media can make a patriot out of an enemy or wise versa. However if the incompetency of the SLAF leader is what putting everybody at risk today, then this will be our last chance to correct it. Because in the next time, LTTE will make sure to do it right and the result of it may even be the end of this WAR.

Equipment – The main weapons we have for air to air combat are F-7 (Chinese version of Mig 21) and the upgraded MI 24.

The F-7 have a very basic radar system (the range is relatively shorter ~ 30 km) which makes it nearly impossible to find and attack a low flying aircraft at night. It just has only the “close air-to-air agile combat” ability. It does not have various other advance options to be effective in an Air-to-Air combat (simply it can attack another plane right in front of it). So to me, F-7 is not a effective weapon against ZLIN. It has to have some luck (or some extra-ordinary ability), for you to find / hit / destroy a low flying zlin in a dark night uisng an F-7.

The MI-24 is relatively a better (radar coverage is ~ 10 km). However we may need to have at least 10-15 Mi 24 helicopters to increase the probability of finding the enemy in a random search. The way LTTE operate ZLIN will challenge the Mi-24 radar system as it may not detect a low flying air craft at a distance. But once engaged, a MI 24 has a better chance of destroying a ZLIN, with it advance weapons, low flying ability and slow speed, than a F-7.

Analysis of the current situation?

If the government of Sri Lanka or our military hand is looking to buy more expensive weapons / advance aircraft to sail over this challenging enemy. I bet we will end up spending all our money yet LTTE will keep outsmarting us. We spent enough money over this already and none of those counter measures took, worked but became white elephants. SLAF needs to understand that it is not about weapons but about smartness what matters here. I have no doubt that ZLIN is a very creative and innovative selection from TAF side. The LTTE is keep on effectively outsmarting SLAF over and over with their "kurumbatti machine" (name is as per our mad, uneducated media). But SLAF is still not getting it, that is the problem (for me).

So buying new euipment will encourage the enemy to be more advanced next time. It will be easier to beat him in the current context, by smartly closing and openning loop holes in the current system, than in a whole new context. Today, SLAF is trying to change the pillow cover to cure thier eye ache (or whatever).

Right now there is a high demand to install a 3d radar system to fight against this tiny enemy. I think we needs at least 4 radars (there are some which can trace up to 90 km) to cover up the whole island. I am not sure how costly they are, or how messy their radar images can be, but to me they look very expensive (unnecessarily). In the recent incident the ground soldiers of the FDL noticed these planes well over before it reaches Colombo, so then we have detected the planes. Then, why we need a much more expensive radar system, is it just to trace the planes? Again what if LTTE may have fixed Radar Jammer already? Again what guarantee we have to say that LTTE can't destroy the radar units via a ground attack? Let’s assume that we have the radar system in place, but still a radar cannot gun down a plane? Can it? It is like having the Plan-B, without the Plan-A.

From the other hand, it can be the world's most expensive and sophisticated radar system. We can have radars also mounted along the costal line (range is ~3km? or limited). But to effectively track a low flying aircraft with a radar system is not practical. It is given that the earth’s sphere shape and the high land diversity of Sri Lanka (rivers, mountains etc).

I know that all tall building in Colombo is having cheap anti aircraft guns mounted now. But they seem to be capable of effectively “missing” the target all the time. So anti aircraft guns (we have) are not a very good option to fight with ZLIN either. I hate to say this, this ENEMY IS A SMART ONE and if you are to beat him, WE HAVE TO OUTSMART HIM. It is a chess game, no matter how many times you change the board, if you are not smart enough, then you will ended up losing the game. In this case buying more equipment is like changing the board.

I think it requires a combine effort and a effective utilization of current resources to bring down this tiny master. I am not a military expert but these are my two cents..

• -If they plan well, outsmart them with superior plans
• -If we cannot break into their intelligent secrets, break into them by outsmarting them.
• -If our LRRP cannot penetrate into Kilinochchi, penetrate into it by outsmarting them.
• -If they manage to hide their aircrafts, reveal them by outsmarting them.
• -If they manage to sneak their way to Colombo, outsmart them by catching them.
• -If they have radar jammers to find their way, outsmart them by blocking their ways.
• -If you cannot bribe Tamils, outsmart them by bribing them

It is only by outsmarting our enemy that we can win here and not by buying new weapons or equipments. If you choose the second, then we can delay the next attack but won't be able to prevent it.

In my mind our first goal has to be to locate the ZLIN base. We don’t have to wait till they attack again to do that? Today the LTTE activities are limited to killinochchi, which is a 625 square kilometers area. It is just 25 Km wide land area. It cannot be that hard, given the things we did before (SLAF look at SLA). Unfortunately we are not focusing on doing that. We always try to spend more money over defending us against ZLIN but do little over offending TAF.

Enough is enough and this is the time to stand tall ..

Long rangers owe the future

.....Today, as LTTE is using their famous civilian shields against the advancing troops, SL Army is correctly utilizing their deep penetrating units to break through that shield. Right now, LRRP is operated on reconnaissance and combat patrols, to obtain highly vital intelligence, or to perform highly dangerous raids and ambushes. These brave soldiers penetrate through rebel civilians and live in jungles for days and nights collecting intelligent news. Some time they fade themselves out among civilian, looking for their next target. Their success on far too dangerous operations and the extraordinary kill ratios has given that vital support the SL Army is desperately needed at this juncture.  To me, the success of this war is heavily depends on the mastery we shown on utilizing our deep penetrating units. How well we use them, the sooner the end of this war will be......

Perhaps, for the first time in the modern world, a guerilla war is beginning to end. A terrorist outfit who fought for many decades is taking their last breath. The experts who argued negatively about the war have changed now. Today they say “The LTTE can be defeated militarily”.  However now these experts are searching desperately for something to earn their next living. These war/ political experts have found a new mantra now, they say “These Tamil terrorists can be defeated militarily, but it remains unclear how the government would pacify and control the large Tamil-speaking areas in the north”. But according to the way it is progessing now, you never knows when they have to stop chanting this mantra and have to look for the next new mantra.

We know that we can defeat this terrorist outfit now. However, that could in my opinion is equal to killing every Tamil in the north and east as well. One thing is clear. We cannot isolate the terrorist from the civilians. That also means wiping out the terrorist equals to wiping out the Tamils. So after all the new mantra that all these experts use to chant these days is having some meaning too.. So, where are we now, how we can win this war then?

I think, we have the answer with our deep penitrating units. At this dawn Sri Lankan army is patrolling around the inner skirt of Kilinochchi, the strong holds town based in far end corner of north. We fought this war many times before but failed until this time. For the first time in the history of this war SL Army has introduced a new unit called LRRP so called long rangers. They are a lonely unit consist of four to six silent men, equipped with modern day state of art technologies. This unit has mastered the covert operations against the rebels in the north. They can successfully penetrate deep into the jungles and assassinate key LTTE figures, hiding in those concrete bunkers.

According to my humble view point, the long rangers owe the future of this war. We will have to deploy more and more LRRP units in the near future. 

Today, as LTTE is using their famous civilian shields against the advancing troops, SL Army is correctly utilizing their deep penetrating units to break through that shield. Right now, LRRP is operated on reconnaissance and combat patrols, to obtain highly vital intelligence, or to perform highly dangerous raids and ambushes. These brave soldiers penetrate through rebel civilians and live in jungles for days and nights collecting intelligent news. Some time they fade themselves out among civilian, looking for their next target. Their success on far too dangerous operations and the extraordinary kill ratios has given that vital support the SL Army is desperately needed at this juncture.  To me, the success of this war is heavily depends on the mastery we shown on utilizing our deep penetrating units. How well we use them, the sooner the end of this war will be..

Finally, as long as Sri Lanka gets rain, we will have forests, as long as we have forests, terrorist will hide, as long as the terrorists are hiding, the terrorist will attack, as long as the terrorists are attacking, the war will not be over, as long as a war, the LRRP is needed. So even after the war, long ranger will rule the north and east jungles. You will hear about them living among civilians collecting intelligent news. It will be a regular scenery to watchful eyes, to see units of four silent men scrolling out/ in through the dark dry zone forests in the future. 

So as I told you before, very soon these political experts and military experts have to look for their next mantra. In the same time LRRP units will have more and more works to do, at least for next ten years, no matter when the war will be over.