Saturday, September 27, 2008

On our way to defeat LTTE?

North battle front, as it stand today

After many decades of war, now we started seeing a light, a light that can ultimately lead us to settle (believe me, I hate to say that is a political settlement) this ongoing problem in the north. Currently, Sri Lankan Army is waiting at the edge of Killinochchi town, waiting to fire their first shot. Everyone believe that the moral of the SL soldiers are at its peak, where as the moral of the LTTE is at its lowest. But still the hardcore enemy units yet to face the army with their maximum power.

Captured areas

Yes, troops are doing well in the battle fields, and ironically everything seems to be falling in our way, favoring us. The moral of the tropes and the gun power, all right. But we shouldn't forget that the serpent is still alive. Today, we are sitting on a volcano, which mean a one big blast can turn everything upside down. I know it is merely impossible to LTTE to stop the current offensive operation through a military fight-back even with their strongest units. However, they can delay it for couple of months. Apart from that, we need to remember that it is a war fare with a guerrilla unit. It is said that, when you are fighting with guerrillas, it does not matter how many military wins you gain, if you lost once, then you are considered a defeated, and guerrillas become the winners. This alone is enough for us to understand the importance of not losing the grip till the very last end.

But I am getting frustrate as I started to see that we are releasing the grip little by little while trying to celebrate a victory, which we haven't gain yet. If you look at the three items that I have listed below, you will notice, that still there are things that are not in our control. These are some important but vastly neglected (at least to my view point) areas that Sri Lankan military must look into...
  1. Are we really killing terrorist as much as we exploit our gun power?
  2. Where is the LTTE suicide attackers squad, there were 4000 at the start of this war, did we destroyed all 4000?
  3. We win the military war, but can we still get defeated in the political war?
The effectiveness of our gun power, are we really killing terrorist as much as we exploit our gun power?

It is obvious that LTTE defense strategy has two goals
  1. They are building new defenses to delay army from marching towards their strong holds
  2. They are trying to get as much carders escaped from the offensive attacks while making us waste billions on military spending.

used to escape from Army Attacks

We know that LTTE is using this new strategy of digging the ground deep, making zigzagging trench lines, running from one place to another, it is obvious that they create these not only to use as a wall against the advancing troops (specially against Armoured Corps) but also to use as a escaping option, even under heavy firing with minimum damages to their carders. However on the other hand SL Army units such as DPU (Deep Penitrating Unit) can use the same to their advantage too.

Anyway, if LTTE is not losing the man power as much as we think they are, it is going to be hard at the end for us to get that easy win. They will deploy all their men for a final fight, possibly with the added support of some chemical weapons, air force (I mean that hutu hutu planes) too. That can make our win, a not a win. But the good point is that as long as we have a long term plan (I am sure we have), which make us stand a step ahead of them, it will not stop us from winning this war. We will win this war, but they can cause delays to it. But in the other hand, more time we take to finish this war mean more money we spend over this, is that a strategy too? Can this war be a well calculated withdrawal plan from LTTE side. That mean LTTE withdraw, while army is attacking, until we finish our money in the government treasury. Because even if government can corner the LTTE, they can still hide themselves among civilians and escape.

In another aspect, if they are going to lose it at the end anyway, then why are they trying to delay our win? Is it an indication of a hidden agenda? I know it is not uncommon these days for a soldier to see LTTE carders fleeing. But why?? Are they really afraid of us??? or are they preserving their carders?? Let's take that as a point to think about little more...

East is fully cleared now

If you look at the numbers, it is not hard to realize that SL Army has expertise this war now. They are damaging the LTTE without much damage to their side. Still all units need to be at their peak till the very end for us to avoid a possible MAJOR, MAJOR disaster at the last part of this war, by a possible counter attack from the LTTE side.

How many of them still remain in the LTTE suicide attacker's squad, there were 4000 at the start of this war, did we destroyed all 4000?

This is one of the strongest points that LTTE has to their advantage. Right now we all know that they are not successful in launching attacks on civil areas in the southern part of Sri Lanka. In simple term, we don’t see bus bombs anymore, as counter attacks to offensive operation in the north. But is it really because that they don’t have that secret network (we know that army arrested all key player of this game) they used before or is it just one of their new strategy? What if they are waiting till a right moment to use their suicide squad in massive scales? What if they are preparing for a sudden major attack (TNA MPs?) if so, are we ready for that? The President is the most important, second is the army commander with Gotabaya/ Basil Rajapakse to follow up, these are the most import key figures that drive this force.

It is like a chess game, if you get the king, no matter what, this movement will turn in 180 degrees tomorrow and go in the complete opposite direction. We need to have our intelligent units look in to these area as well. The question is what plan the LTTE is having, with their suicide bomber squad..

We win it militarily, but can we still get defeated in the political war?

Army Commander addressing a key US Military Group
(SL Army is becoming the world's best unit for guerrilla war fare)

LTTE intelligent unit is surely not aiming toward gaining a military victory now. I think their main goal is to gain a political win, they have their diplomats deployed all around the world working hard, while most of our ambosaders sleeping in the day after parting at night (We lost the seat on the UN Human Rights Council). I know LTTE is secretly raising funds for US presidential candidate Barak Obama. As far as it stands today, Barak Obama has a very high possibility of winning this election too. But from our side the government's diplomats are too very strong. I can see they are laying their plans too. China, India, Russia, and Iran hopefully will stand in our side. But if US stand against us, there going to be some major problems in industries like IT and Garment. They are the ones who heavily depends on US market. So a possible trade band from US, can make tens of thousands of professionals thrown on to the road (it is too early for a such conclusion though). As far as the government diplomatic strategies are concern, I have a great faith on them, and I can see they are thinking too.. So it is going to be a chess game again. Let’s hope for the best.

Sri Lankan MPs Fighting in the Parliament

Now it is proving, that we can win the war no matter what and also let's assume that we can win the faith of the global communities as well but when it comes to getting all greedy Sri Lankan politicians to act together, that is where the real fight going to start. Unfortunately as it stands today it is going to be a fight in between Sinhalese vs. Sinhalese. Who is going to support which side in this war??

It is going to be an interesting future... But at the end if north settle down to a provincial council unit. It is no matter who comes to power in Eastern or North those two chief ministers are going to be the government most loyal ministers. That is given that weapon used by ltte would still hang around every corner of these two provinces..

Ravana - The Noble Emperor of Lanka

He was the king for all human and divine races, and the one who can command the Sun.